大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 14.74%. It is expected that next week, the supply side production scheduling will continue to increase, the demand side will decrease, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment. [4][7][78] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Review and Outlook - Market Trend: The 05 contract rose this week, opening at 125,000 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 143,420 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 14.74% [4]. - Supply Side: This week's lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,959 tons, a 0.25% increase; lithium mica production was 2,956 tons, a 0.68% increase; salt lake production was 3,185 tons, a 1.27% increase; and recycling production was 2,435 tons, a 0.83% increase [4]. - Demand Side: In December 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 130,118 physical tons, a 2.49% decrease. The predicted demand for next month is 117,163 physical tons, a 9.95% increase. The export volume in December 2025 was 326 physical tons, a 57.04% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a 25.77% increase [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 139,168 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.67%. The production income is -1,087 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 132,776 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.77%. The production income is 1,954 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a 4.05% increase; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a 6.30% decrease; other inventories are 55,020 tons, a 3.93% increase; and the total inventory is 109,942 tons, a 0.31% increase [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Market - Lithium Carbonate Price - Basis: Provided the price trends of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as the basis trends [11][12]. - Supply - Lithium Ore: Included the price trends of lithium ore, the production trends of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, the import trends of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the inventory trends of port traders and unsold lithium ore [14][15]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: Covered the weekly production and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from different sources, the monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate, and the monthly supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate [20][21][27]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: Included the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and monthly supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide [29][30][34]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: Analyzed the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials, as well as the processing cost composition, import profit, and purification profit of lithium compounds [36][37][40]. - Inventory: Provided the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories, including warehouse receipts, weekly, and monthly inventories [45]. - Demand - Lithium Battery: Included the price trends, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries, as well as the export volume and inventory of lithium batteries [48][49][50]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: Covered the price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [53][54][57]. - Demand - Ternary Material: Included the price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials [59][60][61]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: Covered the price, production cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [63][64][66]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: Included the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning and inventory indexes of new energy vehicles [70][71][75]. 3. Technical Analysis - The main 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected that the market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [78].