瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal prices continue to decline and perform weaker than soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, there is pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8980 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 64 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 256330 lots, up 11209 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 827782 lots, up 18437 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 18798 lots, down 7881 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 121734 lots, down 14391 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 2292 sheets, up 250 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9906.25 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7481.85 yuan/ton, down 54.33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 758 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 70 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.63%, up 0.44%; that of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, up 0.37%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.67%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.49%, down 0.66% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.53%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, up 0.12%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.78%, up 0.41%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.42%, up 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 9 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but recorded a strong weekly increase. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.20 Canadian dollars or 0.35%, settling at 623.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report, and analysts expect a slight downward adjustment of the US soybean production forecast [2]. - The MPOB report shows that as of the end of December, the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 3.05 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in five years. However, high - frequency data shows that the supply side continued to reduce production this month, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in the first ten days. In addition, Indonesia may confiscate another 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year and may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [2].