沪铜产业日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper price is strongly supported by cost. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand remains cautious, leading to an accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an expanding red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,800 yuan/ton, up 2,390 yuan; LME3 - month copper is 13,214 dollars/ton, up 216 dollars. The spread between months of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 182,688 lots, down 5,986 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,574 lots, down 16,936 lots. LME copper inventory is 138,975 tons, down 2,100 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME copper are 23,625 tons, down 2,300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 116,622 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM1 copper is 103,235 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 103,205 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.94 dollars/ton, up 25.19 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 93,480 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 94,180 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 67,990 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,150 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output value of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai copper for 20 - day is 26.76%, up 0.8%; for 40 - day is 21.93%, up 0.53%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 29.72%, down 0.0185. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.56, up 0.0609 [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. The core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points; it rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The Fed's rate - cut expectation in January 2026 was completely dashed. The U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January was almost zero. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, and the National Business Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system in 2026. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million units, down 14% year - on - year; the annual cumulative retail sales were 23.744 million units, up 3.8%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars in December were 1.337 million units, up 2.6% year - on - year; the annual cumulative sales were 12.809 million units, up 17.6%. It is expected that the retail sales of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2].