瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continued to be strong during intraday trading. The prices of London silver and the main contract of Shanghai silver reached record highs. Driven by the shortage of physical inventory, the silver market continued to rise. The haze gradually dissipated, the US consumer confidence rebounded steadily, and the strong resilience of the employment market weakened the interest - rate cut expectation slightly. However, the market generally expected a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut within the year. In the future, due to the recent geopolitical turmoil, the safe - haven demand for precious metals increased, and the price center was expected to remain high. The shortage of physical silver inventory was difficult to ease quickly, significantly amplifying price elasticity. In the short term, it was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk driven by concentrated long - position liquidation. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan strengthened the narrative of loose liquidity. Against the background of loose liquidity and stable interest - rate cut expectations, the medium - term bullish logic for precious metals had not changed significantly. In the medium and long term, the strategy of bargain - hunting should be adopted, while paying attention to short - term callback risks. Key attention should be paid to this week's US CPI inflation indicator [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was 1026.280 yuan/gram, up 19.8 yuan; the main Shanghai silver futures contract was 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 2214.00 yuan. - The main contract's open interest for Shanghai gold was 116,448.00 lots, down 2838.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,474.00 lots, up 6.00 lots. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai gold contract was 238,101.00 lots, up 76913.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,207,190.00 lots, down 65969.00 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai gold was 97653 kilograms, unchanged; for Shanghai silver, it was 649,643 kilograms, up 29381 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1023.71 yuan/gram, up 20.22 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,432.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2081.00 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was - 2.57 yuan/gram, up 0.42 yuan; for Shanghai silver, it was - 513.00 yuan/kilogram, down 133.00 yuan. - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1067.13 tons, up 2.00 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,118.16 tons, down 235.44 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial net long position of gold in the CFTC was 227632.00 contracts, down 3541.00 contracts; for silver, it was 30,063.00 contracts, down 5821.00 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. - The US dollar index was 0.00, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 0.00, down 0.02 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 14.49, down 0.96; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.00, down 0.64. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.55, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 57.51, down 1.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November 2025, global central banks net - purchased 45 tons of gold, a slight decline from the previous month but still at a high level. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of November, the cumulative net gold purchases reported by global central banks reached 297 tons. - On January 9, 2026, the US Supreme Court did not make a ruling on the tariffs imposed by President Trump. January 14 would be the next day for it to announce a decision. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that if the Supreme Court overturned the global tariffs, the government was ready to use other powers to quickly re - impose them. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January was 54, reaching a four - month high, with the expected value rising to 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectation for the next year was 4.2%, the same as the previous month. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 4.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95.6%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 27.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 71.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 1.1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December PPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month (%) - On January 15 at 01:00, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate - On January 15 at 20:30, the European Central Bank to release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2]