瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the gradual recovery of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 200,506 lots, up 2,788 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 70,564 lots, down 442 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,704 lots, down 3,822 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 14,823 lots, down 1,236 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 104,590 tons, up 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 330 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,408 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 458 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.27 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.54%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.82%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.76%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.74%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].