铂钯金期货日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]