Report Date - The report is dated January 12, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This period, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market was boosted by a significant rise in raw material prices, and producers' sales improved. However, there was some inventory of sold but undelivered products, and the overall inventory level changed little. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. But due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain just - in - time procurement. It is expected that the inventory of producers and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. With the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 - 12,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 22,742, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,597. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,530 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 63.34 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan was 551.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 725 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil was 59.12 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons; the producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2] Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene plants, and the supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of producers have improved [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20260112
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-12 09:35