瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The average weekly operating rate of domestic methanol-to-olefins has increased slightly due to the offset between the load reduction of multiple MTO enterprises in East China and the load increase of inland enterprises. With the implementation of the later maintenance plan of East China MTO, there is an expectation of a short - term load reduction in the MTO industry. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. In January, there is an expectation of a decrease in imports, and the port methanol inventory may decline from a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2263 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol is 863591 lots, an increase of 50636 lots. The net long order volume of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 173209 lots. The number of warehouse receipts of methanol is 7655 sheets [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 382.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 266 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, an increase of 7.62 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.39 tons, a decrease of 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 22.95 yuan/ton, down 1.93 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, an increase of 25100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.07%, down 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.96%, down 0.64 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 76.99%, down 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, down 0.44 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1029 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.79%, up 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 23.68%, up 1.82 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 23.7%, up 1.85 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 44.77 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.75 tons, an increase of 2.95 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 153.72 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 5.72 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.64 tons. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in Zhejiang. As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62% [3].