公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.01.05-2026.01.09）：权益市场交投活跃，顺势而为避免追高-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and standing above 4100 points. The market trading remained highly active, with Friday's turnover reaching 3 trillion and the margin trading balance exceeding 2.6 trillion. The market was mainly driven by bottom - up growth themes, with technology - related sectors like AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces rotating. The small and medium - cap style was dominant [3][12]. - In the short term, the overseas US employment market has resilience but also structural pressure. Inflation data is not expected to have a strong rebound, and the market has digested the possibility of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January. Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term, with limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply - demand of market funds is neutral to optimistic, and with the profit - making effect, off - market funds may continue to flow in, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend [3][14]. - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with long - term yields generally weakening. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is still low. The bond market lacks positive catalysts, and it may have a short - term rebound but is likely to remain neutral in the medium term, with a dominant wait - and - see sentiment [4][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued to rise, with major broad - based indices generally increasing and reaching new stage highs. The trading volume on Friday returned to the peak of 3 trillion, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2.6 trillion. The market was driven by growth themes such as AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces, with the small and medium - cap style being dominant [12]. - Sector Analysis: The brain - computer interface sector was active this week. Expectations of Neuralink's mass production, the establishment of Gestalt Technology in China, and market expectations for the "14th Five - Year Plan" drove the sector's sentiment. The sector may maintain its popularity with the upcoming "2026 Brain - Computer Interface Developers Conference" and other positive news. The aerospace sector had a continuous rally, driven by factors such as the IPO boom in the commercial space field, policy support, and satellite constellation plans. The growth of the growth sector was also related to the CES 2026 exhibition, with the intelligent vehicle and robot sectors being catalyzed by the "physical AI" concept and the focus on the autonomous driving ecosystem and mass production plans at the CES 2026 [12][13]. - Outlook: Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term with limited impact on the domestic market. The market funds' supply - demand is neutral to optimistic, and off - market funds may continue to flow in. However, the establishment of a fundamental one - sided trend still needs the verification of better - than - expected domestic demand. It is recommended that funds that missed the previous rally wait patiently for policy clues during the "Two Sessions" to seek more certain allocation opportunities [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Bond Market: Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with the 1 - year Treasury yield falling 4.35BP to 1.29%, the 10 - year yield rising 3.55BP to 1.88%, and the 30 - year yield rising 4.95BP to 2.30%. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is low, and it may have a short - term rebound but remain neutral in the medium term [4][15]. - US Treasury Bonds: The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week, with short - term yields rising and long - term yields falling. The 1 - year yield rose 5BP to 3.52%, the 2 - year yield rose 7BP to 3.54%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1BP to 4.18%. The market believes the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term is small [15][16]. - REITs: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 1.89% last week, closing at 1028.93 points. Four new public REITs made progress in the primary market [16]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds in each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and matches the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [20]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. The index selects 10 relatively balanced, value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [22]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [24][26]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [28]. - Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [31]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [34]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [37]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum & Chemicals, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [41]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds in passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [44]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [46]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions. [48] 2.6. Fixed - Income + Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [49][52]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [52]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [56]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [59]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions, with underlying assets being overseas bonds [61]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [62].