芳烃橡胶早报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints PTA - Proximal TA device load decreased slightly, polyester load remained stable, inventory continued to decline, but polyester maintenance plans were intensively announced, basis weakened, and spot processing fees shrank. PX domestic operation was at a high level, overseas load increased, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency weakened while isomerization efficiency remained high. In the future, with high PX profits, domestic production will remain high and overseas operation will recover, leading to a downward revision of the de - stocking amplitude in the far - month. TA's own processing fees have also improved. In the short term, the upward space is limited due to the upcoming polyester maintenance plans before the festival. However, the overall pattern has not changed before the new device is put into operation. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas operation improvement [1]. MEG - Proximal domestic oil - based production had some load reduction, overseas maintenance increased month - on - month, port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, and the forecast of arrivals during the week rebounded. The basis remained weak, and coal - based efficiency improved month - on - month. Recently, domestic supply has been increasing steadily, overseas maintenance has increased month - on - month, overall inventory accumulation continues and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The device operation was stable, the operation rate was maintained at 97.6%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the operation rate of the polyester yarn end remained stable, raw material inventory decreased while finished product inventory increased, and efficiency remained stable. After the raw material price correction, the spot processing fees of staple fiber improved, while the futures price remained low. The downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the operation rate of staple fiber remains high. It has a medium - low valuation and weak driving force, with limited overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber No clear weekly or overall view was summarized in the document. Styrene and Related Products No clear view was summarized in the document. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, data such as crude oil, PX processing margin, PTA spot price, and polyester margin were presented. For example, on January 6, the PTA spot price was 6530, and the polyester margin was 369.0 [1]. - Device Changes: Ineos' 1.25 - million - ton device reduced its load [1]. - Market Situation: Proximal TA device load decreased slightly, polyester load remained stable, inventory continued to decline, but polyester maintenance plans were intensively announced, basis weakened, and spot processing fees shrank. PX domestic operation was at a high level, overseas load increased, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency weakened while isomerization efficiency remained high [1]. MEG - Price and Index Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, data such as MEG prices (including outer - disk, inner - disk, etc.), profits, and loads were presented. For example, on January 6, the MEG outer - disk price was 745, and the coal - based profit was - 410 [3]. - Device Changes: Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load [3]. - Market Situation: Proximal domestic oil - based production had some load reduction, overseas maintenance increased month - on - month, port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, and the forecast of arrivals during the week rebounded. The basis remained weak, and coal - based efficiency improved month - on - month [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, data such as staple fiber prices, profits, and loads were presented. For example, on January 6, the staple fiber price was 6610, and the short - fiber profit was - 110 [3]. - Device Operation: The device operation was stable, the operation rate was maintained at 97.6%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased slightly [3]. - Demand - side Situation: The operation rate of the polyester yarn end remained stable, raw material inventory decreased while finished product inventory increased, and efficiency remained stable [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, data such as prices of various rubber products (including US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, mixed rubber, etc.) were presented. For example, on January 6, the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber price was 1895 [3]. Styrene and Related Products - Price Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, data such as prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products were presented. For example, on January 6, the ethylene price was 745, and the pure benzene (CFR China) price was 5295 [6]. - Profit and Operation Rate Data: Data on production profits and operation rates of products such as PS, EPS, and ABS were presented [6].