油脂油料早报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data and trends in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed. There are changes in production, inventory, and export data of major countries, which will have an impact on the market supply and demand situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual US Soybean Information - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 is 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [1]. - The estimated planted area is 81.2 million acres, and the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, both slightly increased compared to December [1]. - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, the same as in December [1]. - The estimated production is 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.253 billion bushels in December [1]. - The estimated export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, down from 1.635 billion bushels in December [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production in 2025/26 is 178 million tons, up from 175 million tons in December, and the estimated export volume is 114 million tons, up from 112.5 million tons in December [1]. - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from December [1]. - China's estimated soybean import volume is 112 million tons, unchanged from December [1]. - The global estimated soybean production is 425.68 million tons, up from 422.54 million tons in December, and the estimated ending inventory is 124.41 million tons, up from 122.37 million tons in December [1]. 3.3 US Soybean Inventory on December 1, 2025 - The total soybean inventory in the US on December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 3.1 billion bushels on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The on - farm inventory was 1.576 billion bushels, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the off - farm inventory was 1.714 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the previous year [1]. - The apparent consumption of soybeans from September to November 2025 was 1.3 billion bushels, a 20% decrease from the previous year [1]. 3.4 US Soybean Export Inspection Volume - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1,275,000 tons [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.91% of the total [1]. - So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 17,934,546 tons, compared with 31,324,934 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. 3.5 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.6%, better than 0.3% in the same period of the previous year [1]. - Brazil exported 645,737.53 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 107,622.92 tons, a 121% increase from the average daily export volume in January of the previous year [1]. 3.6 Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous month, while the production decreased by 20.49% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December 2025 soared to a nearly seven - year high, reaching 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month [1]. - The palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, but it was still the highest output in December in eight years [1]. - The palm oil export in December increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons, reversing the decline of the previous month [1]. 3.7 Global Rapeseed Situation - The estimated global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 95.172 million tons, an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 12.184 million tons, an increase of 2.384 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed oil production is 35.65 million tons, an increase of 1.482 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 3.299 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons year - on - year [1]. - The estimated global rapeseed meal production is 50.912 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending inventory is 1.561 million tons, an increase of 0.125 million tons year - on - year [1]. - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume in 2025/26 is 7.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.131 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.035 million tons year - on - year; the rapeseed meal export volume is 5.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.199 million tons year - on - year [1]. 3.8 Spot Prices - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2][3].