农产品早报-20260113

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 13, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price in Changchun remained at 2160, while in Jinzhou it increased by 20 to 2280. The prices in Weifang and Shekou remained stable at 2230 and 2430 respectively. Corn's basis decreased by 7 to -10, trade profit decreased by 20 to 0, and import profit increased to 292. For starch, the basis decreased by 31 to 89, and processing profit remained at -71 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to farmers' price - holding, limited supply increase, low inventory, and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, depending on pre - festival downstream stocking enthusiasm [3] - Medium - to long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory reduction [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning were stable at 5390, while Nanning increased by 10 to 5360. The price in Kunming remained at 5230. The basis increased by 3 to 105, Thai import profit increased by 18 to 201, Brazilian import profit increased by 18 to 378, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 11568 [6] Market Analysis - International: In the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production. Pay attention to the actual realization of the production increase [6] - Domestic: Short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Medium - to long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will move towards the out - of - quota import cost [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 145 to 15365. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 275 to 9962. The price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.56, the import price decreased by 5 to 21600, the import profit increased by 19 to 1072, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 147 to -533 [19] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable tariff policies after the China - US meeting in Busan, cotton demand is expected to improve this year, suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.11, 0.11, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.02 respectively. The basis decreased by 12 to 320. The prices of white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs remained stable at 3.80, 3.65, and decreased by 0.14 to 17.83 respectively [14] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to future inventory decline lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens before Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [15] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, and Shaanxi 70 general apples remained at 4. The national inventory increased by 21 to 673.37 (as of January 8), Shandong inventory increased by 59 to 257.98 (as of January 8), and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 9. The 1 - month basis increased by 22 to -1078, the 5 - month basis increased by 59 to -730, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 10 to 419 [17][18] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple market is still light. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have declined. The inventory removal rate has slightly increased, but it is still lower than the same period last year. The short - term futures market may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, depending on inventory removal [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From January 6 - 12, 2026, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.05 to 12.88, 13.35, and 13.50 respectively, while the prices in Hubei Xiangyang and Shandong Linyi increased by 0.05 to 12.95 and 13.12 respectively. The basis decreased by 15 to 1145 [18] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near term. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [18]