永安期货有色早报-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflows. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It's expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after [1]. - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expectation trading with amplified fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, but strong expectations support the current high price [1][2]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for month - spread trading [5]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [6][7]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin has strong support in the short - term, and the upward drive is stronger before the macro - sentiment weakens. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, processing fee increases, and macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1290, and LME inventory decreased by 1750 [1]. - Market Outlook: The recent rise in copper prices is due to potential US tariffs and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 310, and LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1][24]. - Market Outlook: Expected trading affects prices. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but strong expectations support high prices [1][2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 20, and LME inventory decreased by 650 [5]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and has different trends overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of Shanghai nickel changed by 3800, and LME inventory decreased by 228 [6]. - Market Outlook: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and the policy - fundamentals game continues [6][7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 [11]. - Market Outlook: Fundamentals are weak, and the price follows nickel price in the short term [11]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium remained unchanged, and LME inventory decreased by 1275 [12]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is affected by production recovery and raw material tightness. Demand is expected to weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to low warehouse receipt risk [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot import gain changed by 2456.09, and LME inventory increased by 490 [12][13]. - Market Outlook: There are supply risks in major countries. In the short - term, the price has strong support and upward drive. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by - 40, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - Market Outlook: Supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 12000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 610 [19]. - Market Outlook: Prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances and other factors. Downstream buyers are cautious [19].