《能源化工》日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - LLDPE: HD - LLD spread is narrowing, with marginal supply increase of LLDPE expected, demand in seasonal off - peak, and downstream开工率 weakening. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability [2]. - PP: Supply - demand is weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, with inventory reduction expected. PDH plants in South China coastal areas have new maintenance plans, and the balance has improved significantly. Pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance plans [2]. Methanol - Futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot is purchased on - demand. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of coastal MTO plants [4][6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Short - term supply - demand is weak, with high inventory pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but there is inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. It is not advisable to chase long in the short - term, and opportunities to short EB03 and shrink processing fees at high levels can be considered [9]. LPG No overall view is provided in the report, only data on price, inventory, and开工率 are presented [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Affected by macro - sentiment and short - term demand expectations, it fluctuates upward. The supply remains high, and the demand is slightly weak. It is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - Glass: After the previous rise, it oscillates and falls back. The supply decreases, and the demand shrinks. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the winter storage situation [13]. Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran, oil prices rise, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Brent crude oil should pay attention to the pressure around $65 per barrel [14]. Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yielding tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand recovery is limited, and inventory in Qingdao increases. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate in the range of 15500 - 16500 [15]. Urea - Supply remains high, and demand is weak. There is no substantial improvement in supply - demand, and prices are expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of plants and downstream demand [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Futures oscillate and fall, supply increases slightly, demand lacks improvement, and prices are expected to be stable and weak [19]. - PVC: Affected by export policies, prices fluctuate emotionally. The fundamentals are still under pressure, and short - term short positions should be on hold [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the medium - term and conduct long - spread arbitrage on PX5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January and greater pressure in February. It is recommended to oscillate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short - term, go long at low levels in the medium - term, and conduct long - spread arbitrage on TA5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weakening, and there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February. Pay attention to the pressure around 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse - spread arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high levels, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at high levels [20]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak, and prices follow raw materials to oscillate. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF plate is recommended to be shrunk at high levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand both decrease, and prices and processing fees follow the cost end. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract plate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - Price and Spread: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increase, and spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 change [2]. - Inventory and开工率: PE企业 inventory and社会库存 increase, PP企业 inventory decreases, and PP贸易商 inventory increases. PE装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 increase slightly, while PP装置开工率 and downstream开工率 decrease [2]. Methanol - Price and Spread: Futures prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decrease slightly, and spreads and basis change [4]. - Inventory: Methanol企业 inventory,港口库存, and社会库存 all increase [5]. - 开工率: Upstream domestic企业开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 decreases [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increase [9]. - Benzene - Styrene Price and Spread: Prices of pure benzene and styrene increase, and spreads and basis change [9]. - Inventory and开工率: Pure benzene江苏港口库存 increases slightly, and styrene江苏港口库存 decreases.开工率 of some industries in the industrial chain changes [9]. LPG - Price and Spread: Futures and spot prices of LPG increase slightly, and spreads and basis change [11]. - Inventory and开工率: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decrease slightly. Upstream主营炼厂开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 changes slightly [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash prices are relatively stable, and spreads and basis change [13]. - Supply and Demand: Soda ash开工率 and周产量 increase, while浮法日熔量 decreases slightly. Glass厂库库存 decreases, and soda ash厂库库存 increases [13]. - Real Estate Data: New - start area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all change [13]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increase, and spreads and basis change [14]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: Prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD change, and spreads and basis change [14]. Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: Prices of natural rubber spot products change slightly, and basis and non - standard spreads change [15]. - Fundamental Data: Production in some countries in November changes,开工率 of tire industries changes, and import and export volumes increase [15]. - Inventory Change:保税区库存 increases, and上期所厂库期货库存 decreases [15]. Urea - Futures and Spot Price: Futures prices oscillate and rise, and spot prices decline slightly [18]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea日产量 and周产量 increase,装置检修损失量 decreases,厂内库存 increases slightly, and港口库存 decreases [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: Prices of PVC and caustic soda products change slightly, and spreads and basis change [19]. - Supply and Demand:开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and some downstream industries changes, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda increases [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Price: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX increase [20]. - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY change [20]. - PX, PTA, MEG Price and Spread: Prices and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG change, and inventory and开工率 of MEG change [20]. - 开工率:开工率 of industries in the polyester industrial chain changes [20].