建信期货油脂日报-20260113

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - After the MPOB report, palm oil prices are expected to remain oscillating and strengthening this week, but the upside is limited by high inventory [8] - Driven by policy expectations, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend this week [8] - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline in Q1, soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price is well - supported at 7,800 - 8,000 [8] - For arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 1 soybean oil, and Grade 3 soybean oil, as well as the quotes of rapeseed oil in Dongguan and palm oil in Dongguan, showed different trends from January to May [7] - Operation Suggestions: After the release of the MPOB report, palm oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; rapeseed oil is likely to decline; soybean oil futures are trending strongly, and an arbitrage strategy of long soybean oil and palm oil, short rapeseed oil is recommended [8] 2. Industry News - Palm Oil Production: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 20.49% and OER unchanged [9] - Palm Oil Exports: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 29.2% (ITS data) or 17.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [10][17] 3. Data Overview - Soybean Oil Inventory: As of the end of the second week of 2026, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.209 million tons, down 77,000 tons from last week; the contract volume was 1.606 million tons, up 69,000 tons [17]