贵金属日评-20260113

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. The report suggests that investors should adopt a bullish approach but strictly control their position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum while shorting gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - Intraday Trends: On January 12, Asian trading hours, precious metal prices continued to strengthen. The market expects the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy in 2026, and geopolitical risks have pushed up prices. The correction at the end of December 2025 has released internal adjustment risks. In 2026, precious metals will continue to be strong. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control position sizes. This week, attention should be paid to US price data, Chinese import and export data, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff measures [4]. - Medium - term Trends: In 2026, geopolitical risks may significantly increase. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premiums of the precious metals sector. The sector will continue the upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control positions. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage [6]. Precious Metals Market Data - Domestic precious metals market data shows that on January 12, the Shanghai Gold Index closed at 1,028.89, up 1.98%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 20,909, up 11.65%; the Guangzhou Platinum Index closed at 622.66, up 3.88%; the Guangzhou Palladium Index closed at 505.71, up 1.29% [5]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - US Employment Data: In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non - farm jobs, less than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Wage growth was stable, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January. The probability of a rate cut in April is 45%, and it is more likely to cut rates in June [18]. - US - Venezuela Relations: The US may lift more sanctions on Venezuela in the coming week. Venezuela is exploring expanding diplomatic relations with the US, and the US is evaluating the possibility of "phased resumption" of embassy operations in Venezuela [18]. - Iran Situation: In Iran, local riots have caused more than 500 deaths. Trump has threatened to intervene, and Iran blames the US and Israel. Trump will meet with senior advisors on Tuesday to discuss options against Iran [19].