建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins have been boosted since the beginning of the year, but the fundamental support is not solid. The supply pressure of polypropylene has eased due to more temporary maintenance, while the overall supply pressure of plastics has slightly increased. The demand for mulch film has driven a slight increase in the start - up of agricultural film, and the start - up of other sectors is basically stable. The replenishment of some downstream factories has slightly increased, but the increase is limited. Enterprises' resistance to high prices restricts the price increase. In the short term, international oil prices have risen due to the Iranian protest activities threatening supply, but overseas geopolitical conflicts cannot change the oversupply pattern of crude oil. Polyolefins are expected to rise first and then fall driven by supply recovery, demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastic Futures: L2605 opened lower, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6737 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.35%), with a trading volume of 500,000 lots and a decrease of 509 lots in positions to 490,780 lots. - PP Futures: PP2605 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan, with a gain of 1.05%, and a decrease of 614 lots in positions to 502,700 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On January 12, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 575,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (5.74%) from the previous working day, compared with 560,000 tons in the same period last year. - PE Market: Most PE market prices rose. Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average. As some ex - factory prices were raised, traders followed suit and raised their quotes, and downstream buyers were cautious in purchasing. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6430 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of the Shandong propylene market was temporarily referred to as 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The overall shipment of production enterprises was smooth, the propylene offer was adjusted steadily, and there was still a premium situation in the actual order auction of some enterprises. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories remained high, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. - PP Market: The PP market showed an obvious upward trend, and the price center of some markets rose by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. Traders' quotes followed the upward trend significantly, and the market center rose. Downstream factories were cautious in purchasing and still resisted high - priced goods, resulting in poor market transactions. The regional price ranges were 6130 - 6250 yuan/ton in North China, 6230 - 6400 yuan/ton in East China, and 6150 - 6450 yuan/ton in South China [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [8][10][11].