建信期货豆粕日报-20260113

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1065 cents. The upward movement at the end of December was due to reaching a key support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending stocks, while the main pressure came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybean is in a crucial growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in major producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons [6]. - In the domestic market, soybean meal rebounded before the festival. Rumors of delayed customs clearance and oil mill shutdowns spread. Although the current inventory is high, the pressure is expected to ease from February to March. The 03 contract has been significantly stronger than the 05 contract and the external CBOT soybean. Given the difficulty in disproving the expectation of reduced pressure by the end of the first quarter, this trend may continue. However, due to the approaching Brazilian harvest, the 05 and subsequent contracts may not see significant rebounds [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price were all 3124, with no change. The trading volume was 125, and the open interest decreased by 125. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 3117, up 11 (0.35%), with a trading volume of 184,645 and an open - interest increase of 10,646. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2790, up 4 (0.14%), with a trading volume of 776,412 and an open - interest increase of 31,923 [6]. 2. Industry News - USDA Reports: On January 13, the USDA will release monthly supply - demand and quarterly inventory reports. Market estimates suggest a 0.24 - billion - bushel decrease in US soybean production to 42.29 billion bushels, a 0.3 - bushel decrease in yield to 52.7 bushels per acre, and a 0.13 - billion - bushel increase in ending stocks to 3.03 billion bushels, implying a decrease in export volume [9]. - Argentine Soybean Sowing: As of January 7, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop was 88.3% complete, up from 82% a week ago. 85% of the sown area was in suitable to optimal moisture conditions, down from 96.1% a week ago. 40% of the first - season soybeans entered the reproductive stage, and 10% were in the flowering stage. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 84% of the intended area [9][10]. - Imported Soybean Auction: The National Grain Trading Center announced an auction of 1.1396 million tons of soybeans on January 13 [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, but specific data values are not detailed in the given text [13].