建信期货多晶硅日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Polysilicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Futures: Multiple polysilicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The PS2605 contract closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, down 2.89%. Trading volume was 42,510 lots, and open interest was 48,830 lots, a net decrease of 2,113 lots. The top 20 long positions decreased by 3,262 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 2,095 lots [4] - Spot: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10.5% [4] Market Outlook - Policy and Risk: In the 2026 polysilicon annual report, it was noted that the contradiction between involution and monopoly requires policy to balance market and moral risks. Since January 7, the policy has shifted from anti-involution to anti-monopoly, and the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products is negative. The exchange's risk control is strict, so it is advisable to wait and see [5] - Supply and Demand: Although the polysilicon price has moved up, the fundamentals are not expected to improve. The expected output of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off-season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. As of the second week of January, the polysilicon spot inventory was 311,800 tons [5] Group 3: Market News - On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,430 lots, an increase of 50 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [6]