金融期货早评-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro & RMB Exchange Rate: The criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell reveals the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy space is narrowing and its independence is being eroded, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by both external and internal factors, and it is an early signal of global capital's re - allocation. The future trends of the Powell event and the RMB will be intertwined [1][2]. - Equity Index: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. However, the sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market showed resilience on Monday. Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. - Container Shipping (European Routes): The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. - New Energy (Carbonate Lithium): The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. - New Energy (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon): In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum Industry Chain): For aluminum, the medium - to long - term price is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. For alumina, the medium - term trend is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Tin): Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - Oils & Fats (Oilseeds): The external soybean market is expected to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market will be near - term strong and long - term weak. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the progress of Australian rapeseed crushing and China - Canada negotiations [24]. - Oils & Fats (Palm Oil): Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term within the sector [24]. - Oils & Fats (Soybean Oil): The global soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the supply increment from reserve sales [24]. - Oils & Fats (Rapeseed Oil): The global rapeseed supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the results of the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China [24]. - Energy & Oil & Gas (Fuel Oil): High - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight due to sanctions, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is improving, and its upward drive is limited [27][28]. - Energy & Oil & Gas (Asphalt): The asphalt market is affected by cost fluctuations. The winter storage policy provides some support, and it is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack long - allocation opportunities [29]. - Precious Metals (Platinum & Palladium): Platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to long - term. However, short - term risks of correction should be noted due to index parameter adjustments [30][31]. - Precious Metals (Gold & Silver): Gold and silver reached new highs. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and use dips as opportunities to add long positions [32][33]. - Chemicals (Pulp - Offset Paper): The pulp futures price fell as expected, and the current market is slightly bearish. The offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies in the short - term [34][35]. - Chemicals (LPG): The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is relatively tight, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of PDH plants [35][36]. - Chemicals (PTA - PX): The PTA - PX supply - demand structure has improved, but the upward drive of PTA is weakened by downstream negative feedback. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. It is not recommended to chase high prices [36][37][39]. - Chemicals (MEG - Bottle Chips): The demand for ethylene glycol is under negative feedback, and the supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse without macro - policy support. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40][41]. - Chemicals (Methanol): The geopolitical logic in the methanol market continues. Although the MTO shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, shorting is not recommended [41][42]. - Chemicals (PP): The PP market is expected to show a pattern of supply and demand reduction. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of plant maintenance [43][44]. - Chemicals (PE): The PE market is shifting to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and its upward space is limited [45][46]. - Chemicals (Pure Benzene - Styrene): Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation in the short - term and follows the strength of styrene. Styrene is running strongly, but caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [47][48][50]. - Chemicals (Rubber): Natural rubber is under supply pressure, and synthetic rubber is affected by cost and demand factors. Rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [50][52][53]. - Chemicals (Urea): The price of urea is expected to rise in the 05 contract, but a short - term correction may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions [54][55]. - Chemicals (Soda Ash & Caustic Soda): Soda ash is facing over - supply expectations, and glass has high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely with weak fundamental drivers [55][57][58]. - Chemicals (Propylene): Propylene prices are mainly affected by cost. The supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost changes [58][59]. - Black Metals (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil): Rebar demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply of steel products is increasing. However, the downside space is limited due to support from raw materials. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [60][61]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The iron ore price is deviating from its fundamentals. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase high prices [61][62]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal & Coke): Some coking enterprises have initiated a price increase. The supply of coking coal and coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. However, the macro - sentiment is the key factor affecting the price [63][64]. - Black Metals (Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese): The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is under pressure, but they are supported by cost. They are expected to oscillate at the bottom after a correction [64]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Hogs): The hog market is in a situation of both decreasing supply and demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly with limited upside [65][66]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Cotton): The price of cotton has risen, but there are risks of short - term correction due to factors such as squeezed spinning profits and the price advantage of imported yarns [67][68]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Sugar): The sugar price is oscillating under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [68][69]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Eggs): The egg price is rising during the pre - holiday peak season and is expected to remain strong until the Spring Festival [70]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Apples): The apple futures price is under pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [74][75]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Jujubes): The jujube price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term and will be under pressure in the long - term due to loose supply - demand [76]. - Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Logs): The spot price of some log specifications has increased, but the futures market is dull. The inventory may have reached a turning point, and the upside of the price is limited [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Exchange Rate - Market Information: Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran; the Fed's investigation of Powell has caused market turmoil; Trump may interview a BlackRock executive for the Fed chair position [1]. - Core Logic: The criminal investigation of Powell reflects the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy independence is being challenged, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The RMB's appreciation is driven by both external and internal factors [1][2]. - Exchange Rate Performance: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose in the previous trading day, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [1]. 3.2 Equity Index - Market Review: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. The futures index also showed different trends [4]. - Important Information: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chair [4]. - Market Outlook: The sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - Market Review: The bond market showed resilience on Monday, with most bond prices rising. The money market tightened slightly, and the yield of some bonds declined [5]. - Important Information: Relevant departments announced plans to focus on technological research and development in certain fields during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. - Market Outlook: Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping (European Routes) - Market Review: The container shipping futures on European routes rose across the board on the previous trading day, with near - term contracts performing strongly. The spot index also increased significantly [7][8]. - Market Information: The market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected PV cargo rush, the resumption of shipping by Maersk, and the approaching Spring Festival [9][10]. - Market Outlook: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. 3.5 New Energy 3.5.1 Carbonate Lithium - Market Review: The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the trading volume decreased. The inventory of carbonate lithium futures increased [13]. - Industry Performance: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well, with prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and cathode materials rising [13]. - Market Outlook: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. 3.5.2 Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Market Review: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The trading volume and inventory of both also changed [14]. - Industry Performance: The spot market of the industrial silicon and PV industries performed generally. The prices of some products remained stable, while others increased slightly [14][15]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - Market Review: The futures prices of copper in different markets rose. The basis and the ratio of Shanghai and London copper also changed [16]. - Industry Information: The inventory of copper in different exchanges showed different trends, and the spot price of copper increased. Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for the Fed's interest rate policy [16][17]. - Market Outlook: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: The futures prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory of each also changed [19]. - Core Logic: For aluminum, Trump's tariff decision and the change in the PV export tax policy may affect the price. For alumina, it is affected by the performance of related varieties and is in an over - supply situation. For cast aluminum alloy, it follows the trend of aluminum and has certain support [19][20]. - Market Outlook: The medium - to long - term price of aluminum is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. 3.6.3 Zinc - Market Review: The futures price of zinc rose. The trading volume and inventory also changed [20]. - Core Logic: The supply of zinc is relatively loose in the long - term, but the short - term supply is affected by the tightness of raw materials. The demand is weak, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [20][21]. - Market Outlook: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. 3.6.4 Tin - Market Review: The futures price of tin rose strongly. The trading volume and inventory also changed [21]. - Market Outlook: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.6.5 Lead - Market Review: The futures price of lead oscillated narrowly. The spot price also remained stable [22]. - Core Logic: The supply of lead is affected by the tightness of raw materials, and the demand is weak. The inventory situation is different at home and abroad [22]. - Market Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. 3.7 Oils & Fats 3.7.1 Oilseeds - Market Review: The report data of oilseeds were bearish, and the domestic粕类 is expected to open lower. The market will be near - term strong and long - term weak [24]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: For imported soybeans, the supply pressure from Brazil in the second quarter of