建信期货铜期货日报-20260113

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Report Core View - The copper price is expected to continue rising. Although the high copper price suppresses downstream procurement and domestic social inventory accumulates significantly, the export window is opening, which will relieve the domestic spot pressure. Additionally, the ruling on the US tariff case on January 14 may trigger market concerns about US copper tariffs again [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 3.51% to 103,800 yuan, and the total open interest increased by 12,971 lots to 695,000 lots. After the mixed US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night, the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to June, and the US dollar index rose. However, the metal sector soared across the board during the day, and the copper price rose again under the influence of the market's bullish sentiment [10]. - The spot copper shifted to a premium of 60 yuan. As the delivery approached and the supply of high - quality copper was tight, the premium quotation increased. But the domestic social inventory increased significantly again, with an increase of 19,600 tons to 293,400 tons from last Thursday. The high copper price suppressed downstream procurement [10]. - The export window is about to open, the spot import loss widened to 1,321 yuan/ton, the LME 0 - 3 back structure widened to $41.94/ton, and the LME market supply tightened. It is expected that the domestic spot pressure will be relieved when the export window opens [10]. 2. Industry News - Lundin Mining has submitted an environmental permit application to Chile, planning to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine. The project aims to optimize mine infrastructure and extend the mine's operation period to 2039. Caserones is expected to produce 127,000 - 133,000 tons of copper this year [10]. - Pan Pacific Copper proposed a record - high copper price premium of $330 per ton to its Japanese domestic customers in 2026, more than three times the $88 premium in 2025. The reasons for the premium increase are the significant decline in TC/RC, which raises raw material procurement costs, and the market's concern that the US may impose tariffs on copper ingots later this year, leading to a shortage of supply in the Asian market [10][11].