建信期货钢材日评-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and rebounded, recovering most of the previous day's losses. The steel price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, and it is advisable to try to buy for hedging or investment at low prices [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On January 12, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and rebounded. The closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, and SS2603 increased by 0.60%, 0.55%, and 1.21% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to some extent [5]. - Spot Market: On January 12, the prices of individual rebar spot markets fluctuated, and the prices of a small number of hot-rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The price of rebar in Hangzhou market rose by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Zhengzhou market fell by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and other markets rose by 10 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract changed from a weak dead cross to a weak golden cross, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract rose. The daily MACD red bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts turned slightly larger [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Message: Geopolitical turmoil has caused the prices of precious metals and some non-ferrous metal commodities to rise significantly and then fall back. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal futures in the black series have become hedging chips, but smart funds have begun to lay out medium- and long-term positions [8][9]. - Fundamentals: The output of the five major steel products has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the demand has significantly shrunk to the lowest level since mid-October last year and late February last year. Due to the weekly supply exceeding demand, the social inventory has rebounded from the lowest level since late January last year. The cost of steel still has strong support [9]. 3.4 Industry News - Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel's No. 5 heavy slab continuous caster was fully completed and put into operation on January 9. - Honglu Steel Structure's cumulative new sales contract amount in 2025 was about 29.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%, and the steel structure product output was about 5.0207 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%. - Tangshan Port expects to complete a total cargo throughput of 242 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. - Fushun Special Steel completed the absorption and merger of its wholly-owned subsidiary Xinxing Plate. - Xinji Energy's preliminary estimated operating income in 2025 was 12.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.02%. - Huayang Co., Ltd. stated that coal prices are affected by multiple factors and are volatile. - Jiangsu Province plans to arrange 670 major provincial projects in 2026, with an annual planned investment of 664.6 billion yuan. - Guangxi's 2026 annual long-term agreement transaction was successfully concluded, with a cumulative transaction electricity volume of 66.534 billion kilowatt-hours. - Mongolia's coal exports in 2025 reached 89.7093 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%. - Australia's coal export value in November 2025 was 5.644 billion Australian dollars, a month-on-month increase of 2.81%. - JSW Steel's crude steel output in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October - December 2025) reached 7.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. - India's coal production in December 2025 was 101 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.66% [10][11]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the inventory of steel mills, the blast furnace opening rate, the electric furnace opening rate, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [13][14][32].