原木期货日报-20260113

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current log market has weak supply and demand, with low spot prices. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On January 12, 2026, the price of log 2601 was 770, up 28 from January 9, with a rise of 3.77%; log 2603 was 773, down 1.5, a decline of -0.19%; log 2605 was 786.5, down 0.5, a decline of -0.06%; log 2607 was 799.5, up 1.5, a rise of 0.19%. The main contract basis was -33, up 1.5 [1]. - Spot Prices: The prices of most spot logs remained stable, except for the 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 to 740, with a rise of 1.37%. The latest round of foreign market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation On January 13, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.968, with no change. The import theoretical cost, calculated at a 15% over - length, was 754.94 yuan, down 0.15 from January 12, a decline of 0% [1]. Supply - Monthly Supply: In November, the port freight volume was 191.4 (ten thousand/cubic meters), up 2.2 from October, with a rise of 1.16%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, up 3 from the previous period, a rise of 6.12% [1]. - Expected Arrivals: From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 67%; the arrival volume is about 48.6 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 18.1 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]. Inventory As of January 9, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 2 from last week. The inventory in Shandong was 196 (ten thousand/cubic meters), up 1, a rise of 0.51% [1][2]. Demand As of January 9, the average daily log出库 volume was 5.75 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 0.1 from the previous week. The demand in Shandong decreased by 0.1 to 2.79 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decline of - 3%, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 0.18 to 2.35 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a rise of 8% [1][2].