平安证券（香港）港股晨报-20260113

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion HKD, with net inflows of 484 million HKD recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The US stock market saw the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reach new highs, with the Dow closing at 49,590 points, up 0.2% [2] Key Insights - The report highlights the sustained net inflow of southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a projected annual net inflow of 1,404.8 billion HKD by 2025 [3] - The focus on "technological self-reliance" and AI applications is expected to be a core theme for the future performance of Hong Kong stocks, with leading companies in these sectors likely to benefit from long-term growth opportunities [3] - The report suggests continued attention to sectors supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption, such as sports apparel and non-essential services [3] Company Performance - TSMC, the world's largest advanced AI chip manufacturer, is expected to see a 27% increase in net profit in Q4, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure [8] - Analysts predict TSMC's net profit could reach 475.2 billion TWD (approximately 15.02 billion USD), marking a record high for a single quarter [8] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the domestic semiconductor foundry industry, such as Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) and SMIC (0981.HK), which are expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies [8] Stock Recommendations - China Unicom (0762.HK) is highlighted for its strong performance in digital technology services, with a projected revenue of 45.4 billion CNY for its smart network business in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year growth [9] - The company is also expected to maintain a high dividend yield, with a mid-2025 interim dividend of 0.2841 CNY per share, up 14.5% year-on-year [9] - The report emphasizes the company's advantages in cloud computing, IoT, big data, and AI, positioning it well to capitalize on the growth of China's digital economy [9]