贵金属日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the impact of news weakens, the market will maintain a relatively strong shock. The short - term uncertainty of the market is high. Gold can maintain a light - long position above $4300 or sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value [1] - For silver, due to the intensification of global inventory shortages and the large - scale increase of spot by institutional long - funds through ETFs and physical delivery, the price is running strongly, and the price center is expected to move up continuously. However, rising raw material costs may suppress industrial demand. After the impact of the global commodity index rebalancing is basically digested, it is recommended to hold long - positions above $75 and operate cautiously on one side under high - volatility risks [1] - Platinum and palladium have a strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and the price is still undervalued compared with gold. Driven by funds, their value is being reshaped, and they are expected to continue to rise in the medium and long - term. In the short - term, market speculation has weakened and fluctuations have narrowed. But with the strong external market, it is recommended to buy platinum and palladium lightly on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2602 contract closed at 1026.28 yuan/gram on January 12, up 1.97% from January 9; the AG2604 contract closed at 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 11.82%; the PT2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan/gram, up 3.83%; the PD2606 contract closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 1.21% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4518.40 per ounce on January 12, up 2.00% from January 9; the COMEX silver主力 contract had a certain increase; the NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2361.30 per ounce, up 3.67%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1911.50 per ounce, up 2.00% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $4509.02 per ounce, up 1.99%; London silver was at a price with a 6.54% increase; spot platinum was at $2374.00 per ounce, up 4.03%; spot palladium was at $1851.00 per ounce, up 0.98%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1022.12 yuan/gram, up 1.91%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 20902 yuan/kilogram, up 11.42%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 613 yuan/gram, up 3.39% [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.16 with a certain historical 1 - year quantile; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 43; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.24; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.14 [1] Ratio of Precious Metals - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 54.12, down 4.43%; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 53.73, down 8.81%; the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, up 1.63%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.23, up 2.59% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.2%; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.54%, unchanged; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90%, unchanged; the US dollar index was 98.89, down 0.24%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9687, down 0.10% [1] Inventory and Position - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 649,643 kilograms, up 4.74%; the COMEX gold inventory was 36,311,918 ounces, unchanged; the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.51%; the COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.52%; the COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1.23%; the SPDR gold ETF position increased by 0.59%; the SLV silver ETF position increased by 0.24% [1]