《农产品》日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Red Dates - Current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market trading is light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of social inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamental situation has no obvious driving force, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 2.2 Apples - In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. As the Spring Festival stocking season approaches, market activity has increased. In the medium to long term, high - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high - priced apples may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits may挤占 the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market will fluctuate at a high level, with near - term prices stronger than long - term prices [3][8]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening US dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. In India, production is strong, while Thailand's crushing season is progressing slowly. Overall, raw sugar prices will remain volatile in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the Spring Festival approaching, trading is acceptable, and enterprises are selling at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [10]. 2.4 Cotton - ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas is rising, but it is still early for sowing, and further observation is needed. USDA export sales have been declining, and export expectations may be revised downwards. US cotton is expected to remain volatile at a low level. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, cotton prices may enter a period of adjustment in the short term [13]. 2.5 Corn - Snowfall in Northeast China has affected the supply of corn, and pre - festival stocking by some downstream enterprises has supported prices. The futures price increase has boosted market sentiment, and prices in production areas and northern ports are rising. In North China, the pace of grain sales is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. In terms of demand, deep - processing enterprises still have a willingness to replenish inventory, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited; feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are mainly replenishing inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policy, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid demand for stocking by downstream enterprises support the upward movement of corn prices [16][18]. 2.6 Oils - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, negative factors have been digested, and positive export data have supported the market. Crude palm oil futures may approach 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report is bearish, and CBOT soybeans may experience a correction after a period of stagnant growth. CBOT soybean oil may follow suit. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory in factories is decreasing, but the USDA reports are negative for the market, and Dalian soybean oil may test the support level of 7900 yuan. - Rapeseed Oil: The limited increase in international crude oil has provided weak support for the domestic vegetable oil market. Concerns about future rapeseed oil supply due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China have led to a weakening sentiment. Rapeseed oil may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The basis price of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in the start - up of domestic crushing plants [19]. 2.7 Pigs - Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig farmers have reduced the number of pigs for sale, while southern demand has dropped significantly. Although there is still some restocking in local second - fattening, the enthusiasm is limited due to the relatively high current pig prices. The market expects an increase in supply in the future. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be sold in mid - to late January, and the overall supply in January will be relatively loose. The upward space for the futures market is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [20][21]. 2.8 Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' willingness to cull laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather conditions, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is increasing. With the Spring Festival approaching, the festival stocking plans of various links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, the procurement intensity of household consumption has not changed significantly, and the current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading links. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. Considering the overall loose supply, egg futures prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [23]. 2.9 Meal - US soybeans are strongly influenced by capital and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday for new trading guidance. The domestic purchase of soybean cargoes is fast, and the supply in the domestic market will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve sales. The visit of Canada to China has sent positive signals, and the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which has dragged down the domestic rapeseed meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There are also many expectations of auctions, which have put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downward space for soybean meal is limited, and the upward movement is mainly affected by policy factors. The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound volatile pattern [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Red Dates - Futures Market: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have increased slightly, with increases of 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.48% respectively. The 5 - 7 spread has increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 21.88%. - Spot Market: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates are 9490 yuan/ton, 8200 yuan/ton, and 7000 yuan/ton respectively. The special - grade red date price has decreased by 0.32%, and the first - and second - grade prices have remained unchanged. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 2820, an increase of 11.77%, and the number of valid forecasts is 472, a decrease of 23.25%. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3292, an increase of 4.91% [1]. 3.2 Apples - Futures Market: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) has decreased by 0.61%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract has increased by 0.11%. The basis has increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread has decreased by 5.59%. - Market Arrivals: The arrivals at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets have increased by 14.29%, 9.09%, and 12.50% respectively. - Inventory and Profits: The national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit has decreased by 4.38%, and the surface profit has decreased by 6.35% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - Futures Market: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.06% and 0.15% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 45.45%. The main - contract position has decreased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 48.86%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 42.38%. - Spot Market: The prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5360 yuan/ton and 5230 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis has decreased by 8.54%, and the Kunming basis has increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota and out - of - quota) have decreased by 0.52%. - Industry Situation: The national sugar production and sales have decreased by 16.43% and 37.18% respectively. The sugar production and sales in Guangxi have decreased by 29.42% and 40.96% respectively. The national and Guangxi sugar sales ratios have decreased by 24.77% and 23.20% respectively. The national industrial inventory has increased by 10.82%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 5.55%, and the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 85.45%. Sugar imports have decreased by 16.98% [10]. 3.4 Cotton - Futures Market: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.34% and 0.44% respectively. The ICE US cotton main contract has increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 8.11%. The main - contract position has decreased by 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 5.14%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 4.57%. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton and the CC Index 3128B have decreased by 0.52% and 0.46% respectively. The FC Index M 1% has remained unchanged. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory has increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the import volume has increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days have decreased by 4.6%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 4.4%, the spinning - enterprise C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 3.6%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has decreased by 44.4%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has increased by 110.8%, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories has increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate has increased by 31.4% [13]. 3.5 Corn - Futures Market: The price of the corn 2603 contract has increased by 1.19%, the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 115.38%. The price of the corn starch 2603 contract has decreased by 1.22%, and the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 38.30%. - Spot Market: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the Shekou Port market price has increased by 0.41%. The north - south trading profit has decreased by 1000.00%, and the import profit has decreased by 18.58%. The average price of corn starch has increased by 0.04%. - Inventory and Other Data: The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants have decreased by 21.96%. The corn position has increased by 3.99%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 4.16%. The corn starch position has increased by 1.46%, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [16]. 3.6 Oils - Futures Market: The price of the Y2605 soybean oil contract has decreased by 0.35%, the P2605 palm oil contract has increased by 0.48%, and the OI605 rapeseed oil contract has decreased by 0.69%. The soybean - palm oil spread, soybean - rapeseed oil spread, and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread have changed to varying degrees. - Spot Market: The prices of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu have decreased by 0.35%, 0.35%, and 1.02% respectively. - Inventory and Profits: The soybean oil inventory in China has decreased, the palm oil inventory in China has changed, and the rapeseed oil inventory in China has changed. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port have changed [19]. 3.7 Pigs - Futures Market: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract has increased by 3.10%, the 2603 contract has decreased by 0.41%, and the 3 - 5 spread has increased by 3.37%. The main - contract basis is 1165, and the main - contract position has increased by 0.84%. The number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hebei, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume has decreased by 0.09%, the white - strip price has remained unchanged, the piglet price has increased by 6.45%, the sow price has increased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight has decreased by 0.09%, the self - breeding profit has increased by 66.64%, the purchased - piglet breeding profit has increased by 95.22%, and the number of fertile sows has decreased by 1.12% [20][21]. 3.8 Eggs - Futures Market: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts have decreased by 0.66% and 0.57% respectively. The basis has increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread has decreased by 0.36%. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price has increased by 3.21%, the egg - chicken chick price has increased by 3.57%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit has increased by 18.01% [23]. 3.9 Meal - Futures Market: The price of the M2605 soybean meal contract has increased by 0.14%, the RM2605 rapeseed meal contract has decreased by 0.34%, the price of the soybean - one main contract has decreased by 0.50%, and the price of the soybean - two main contract has increased by 0.09%. The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread, rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread, oil - meal ratio, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread have changed to varying degrees. - Spot Market: The prices of Jiangsu soybean meal, Jiangsu rapeseed meal, Harbin soybeans, and Jiangsu imported soybeans have changed to varying degrees. - Inventory and Profits: The number of soybean meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of soybean warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.01%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has increased by 32.4%, and the Canadian 3 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has remained unchanged [24].