Guoxin Securities Hongkong·2026-01-13 05:12Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The expected M2 growth rate for 2026 is approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0%. This aligns with the goal of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [2][18][19] - The banking sector is expected to see a structural differentiation in retail credit, with corporate lending remaining the primary contributor to new loans, accounting for approximately 80% to 85% of new loans [33][37] - The report highlights the importance of deposit flows, particularly the trend of deposits moving from large banks to smaller banks, which will influence the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026 [3][41] Summary by Sections M2 and Credit Growth - The M2 increment for 2026 is estimated at about 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net injection contributing approximately 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit (including write-offs and ABS) contributing around 16.8 trillion yuan [2][29][24] - The anticipated new social financing for 2026 is about 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 8.0% [30][32] Credit Allocation - Corporate lending is expected to remain strong, while retail lending will show structural improvements, contributing about 10% to 15% of new loans [33][37] - The report notes that retail credit is likely to experience a slight positive growth, particularly in quality consumption scenarios and personal operating loans [33][37] Asset-Liability Dynamics - The asset-liability gap for large banks is projected to continue, with marginal changes primarily driven by the liability side, influenced by deposit flows [3][41] - The report estimates that the maturity of fixed-term deposits for the six major banks in 2026 will be around 57 trillion yuan, with 2-year and longer-term deposits accounting for 27 to 32 trillion yuan [49][52] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks with improving fundamentals, specifically highlighting Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also suggesting attention to Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for potential excess returns [4] - Additionally, it emphasizes the value of stable, high-dividend stocks, recommending China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [4]