集运早报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is not recommended to enter the market for EC2602 as its current valuation is neutral and it may be affected by rush shipments [2]. - For EC2604, attention should be paid to the actual inspection and shipment situation. In the short - term, the upward sentiment may be strong, but the actual scale of rush shipments may be limited. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of rush shipments and consider shorting opportunities [2]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for the far - month contracts. Due to significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - Closing Prices and Changes: EC2602 closed at 1748.0 with a 1.05% increase; EC2604 at 1280.8 with an 11.91% increase; EC2606 at 1485.1 with a 4.16% increase; EC2608 at 1565.2; EC2610 at 1154.0 with a 4.70% increase [2]. - Open Interest Changes: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 4359 to 13344; that of EC2604 increased by 8071 to 37092; EC2606 increased by 431 to 2936; EC2608 increased by 236 to 1451; EC2610 increased by 566 to 7228 [2]. - Basis: The basis of EC2602 is 208.4; EC2604 is 675.6; EC2606 is 471.3; EC2608 is 391.2; EC2610 is 802.4 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 decreased by 118.1 day - on - day and 181.7 week - on - week; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 increased by 77.0 day - on - day and decreased by 11.1 week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Spot Index Data - SCHIS (European Line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of 2026/1/12, it was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Friday, as of 2026/1/9, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data [2]. 3.3 European Line Spot Situation - Week 2: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, and the price in Hamburg was 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, while OA raised prices. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [3]. - Week 3: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA's price range was 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market [3]. - Week 4: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin, and most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being [3]. 3.4 Related News - On January 13, it was reported that from January 11 - 12, Maersk's Denver vessel successfully passed through the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea. Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. - On January 13, Trump announced that starting from that day, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the United States [4].