燃料油早报-20260113

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium for Merey crude in late December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 0.76, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 0.63, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 0.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.95, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.39 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 1.60, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.50, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 1.46, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.19 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by 3.66, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 3.80, the 380 basis increased by 0.21, the high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of FU 01 increased by 10, FU 05 decreased by 37, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 47, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 28, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 19 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of LU 01 increased by 33, LU 05 increased by 1, LU 09 increased by 8, LU 01 - 05 increased by 32, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [3].