原油成品油早报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking US citizens in Iran to leave immediately and make departure plans without relying on US government assistance [3]. - Trump said that Iran called to negotiate on the nuclear issue yesterday, and the US may meet with them. He also announced that starting from now, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the US [4]. - The White House stated that diplomacy is the "preferred" option for the US to deal with the Iranian situation, but Trump will not hesitate to use the US military if necessary [4]. 2. Inventory - In the week ending January 2nd, US crude oil exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day [4]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.86% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - In the week ending January 2nd, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.339 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.386 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. 3. Weekly Quotes | Date | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1 - 2 month spread | WTI - BRENT | DUBAI - BRENT (EFS) | NYMEX RB | RBOB - BRENT | NYMEX HO | HO - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 57.13 | 60.70 | 59.16 | 0.74 | 0.39 | - 3.57 | 1.31 | 170.06 | 10.73 | 208.30 | 26.79 | | 2026/01/07 | 55.99 | 59.96 | 58.35 | 0.84 | 0.38 | - 3.97 | 1.41 | 169.45 | 11.21 | 205.67 | 26.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 57.76 | 61.99 | 60.08 | 0.89 | 0.50 | - 4.23 | 1.30 | 176.03 | 11.94 | 211.95 | 27.03 | | 2026/01/09 | 59.12 | 63.34 | 61.02 | 0.89 | 0.55 | - 4.22 | 1.38 | 178.06 | 11.45 | 213.50 | 26.33 | | 2026/01/12 | 59.50 | 63.87 | 61.17 | - | 0.65 | - 4.37 | 1.94 | 179.38 | 11.47 | 215.44 | 26.61 | | Change | 0.38 | 0.53 | 0.15 | - | 0.10 | - 0.15 | 0.56 | 1.32 | 0.02 | 1.94 | 0.28 | | Date | SC | OMAN | SC - BRENT | SC - WTI | Domestic Gasoline | Domestic Gasoline - BRENT | Domestic Diesel | Domestic Diesel - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | | 428.20 | 58.86 | 0.32 | 3.89 | 7090 | 3542 | 5743 | 2612 | | 2026/01/07 | | 416.30 | 57.98 | - 0.65 | 3.32 | 7050 | 3544 | 5711 | 2618 | | 2026/01/08 | | 416.20 | 59.98 | - 2.70 | 1.53 | 7010 | 3385 | 5673 | 2475 | | 2026/01/09 | | 432.70 | 61.37 | - 1.64 | 2.58 | 7040 | 3340 | 5717 | 2452 | | 2026/01/12 | | 437.50 | 61.63 | - 1.47 | 2.90 | 7080 | 3350 | - | - | | Change | | 4.80 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 40.00 | 10.00 | - | - | | Date | Japanese Naphtha CFR | Japanese Naphtha - BRENT | Singapore Fuel Oil 380CST Premium | Singapore 380 - BRENT | SHFE FU Main Contract | SHFE FU - BRENT | SHFE BU Main Contract | SHFE BU - BRENT | HH Natural Gas | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 534.25 | 88.11 | - 2.0 | - 103.24 | 2479 | - 92.88 | 3144 | 1.89 | - | 61.92 | | 2026/01/07 | 532.75 | 92.04 | - 1.5 | - 98.31 | 2437 | - 93.49 | 3160 | 9.52 | 3.100 | 61.51 | | 2026/01/08 | 540.75 | 85.12 | - 1.9 | - 119.97 | 2458 | - 105.47 | 3132 | - 9.45 | 3.100 | 64.04 | | 2026/01/09 | 551.25 | 85.70 | - 1.43 | - 124.12 | 2514 | - 107.06 | 3171 | - 13.38 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | 2026/01/12 | - | - | - 1.22 | - 130.52 | 2461 | - 118.64 | 3157 | - 19.14 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | Change | - | - | 0.21 | - 6.40 | - 53 | - 11.58 | - 14 | - 5.76 | - 0.210 | 0.77 | [3][14]