沪铜产业日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals is running at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply is still tight, with relatively strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, as copper prices and the prices of smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid are all at high levels, smelters are still relatively active in production. It is reported that the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream procurement sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new downstream orders is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.55, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0087, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 102,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,510.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,133.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 172,960.00 lots, a decrease of 9,731.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,925.00 lots, a decrease of 8,758.00 lots. The LME copper inventory was 137,225.00 tons, a decrease of 1,750.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543.00 tons, an increase of 35,201.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 22,075.00 tons, a decrease of 1,550.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 122,127.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 725.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 102,315.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 890.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 38.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 220.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 785.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 64.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.37 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 45.41 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.43 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 92,580.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 93,280.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000.00 tons, a decrease of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 69,490.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 84,650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 78,590.90 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.20 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 215,000.00 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 27.16%, an increase of 0.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.25%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 33.85%, an increase of 0.0413%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, actions to rejuvenate traditional industries, "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, and actions to develop and expand emerging industries and create new driving forces will be implemented. Focus on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G to strengthen technological research, product development, enterprise cultivation, and ecological construction. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell responded that this move is unprecedented and should be viewed in the context of the continuous threats from the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve, aiming to further pressure him on the issue of interest rate cuts. The Ministry of Commerce reported on the progress of consultations on the China - EU electric vehicle case. The EU will issue a "Guidance Document on Submitting Price Commitment Applications" and confirm that it will adhere to the principle of non - discrimination, apply the same legal standards to each price commitment application in accordance with relevant WTO rules, and conduct evaluations in an objective and fair manner. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a statement saying that it will encourage and support the involved enterprises to make full use of the consultation results and strive for their export rights to the EU by applying for price commitments. The new collective bargaining at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to continued production disruptions caused by strikes. The union said in a statement that the labor department has notified them that the company will no longer have union emergency personnel to maintain facility operations because the company "failed to meet legal requirements and submitted documents late" [2].