瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent slight rebound in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2990 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 17657 hands, up 2367 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 401 yuan/500 kilograms, down 17 yuan; the futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 272149 hands, up 1928 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 3 hands, down 2 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.48 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 486 yuan/500 kilograms, up 109 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying - hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), down 2.21; the culled laying - hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), down 13.26; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan/feather, up 0.1 yuan; the new - chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), up 26.53; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan/hen, up 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan; the culling age of hens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.04 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.71 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.51 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2].