Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, with some enterprises having maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and some continuing to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 155 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 70,162 lots, a decrease of 402 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,451 lots, an increase of 253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,091 lots, a decrease of 268 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.09 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.13 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, with no change. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, an increase of 6,630,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.48%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.64%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.28%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.27%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1,140,000 vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260113
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-13 09:40