瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 2100 technically. The supply pressure of caustic soda may further increase. The spot price of liquid caustic soda is under pressure due to the overall loose supply - demand situation. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the main contract position is 208,787 lots, an increase of 9,209 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 26,422 lots, a decrease of 2,085 lots; the main contract trading volume is 485,679 lots, an increase of 41,886 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,964 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2,313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2,106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan. The basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 644 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. [2] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. From January 3rd to 9th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.07% to 85.74%. From January 5th to 8th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 3.01% to 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 60.09%. As of January 8th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a 1.96% increase from the previous week and a 76.03% increase year - on - year. [2] Viewpoint Summary - From January 2nd to 8th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 183 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the start - up was high. The alumina start - up rate changed little, the viscose staple fiber start - up load increased, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased seasonally. The inventory increased compared with the previous period and was higher than the same - period level. The price of caustic soda in Shandong was weak, the price of liquid chlorine increased, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January was small, and the industry start - up rate was expected to remain at a relatively high level. The short - term start - up load of alumina enterprises remained basically stable, but the low profit in the industry suppressed the procurement demand of alumina plants and increased the expectation of future production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. [2]