瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 136,111 lots, up 1,772 lots; the position of the main contract was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 4,360 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots/ton, up 928 lots [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton, down 3,420 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 18,500 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - Downstream and Application Situation: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume was 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2]. - Option Situation: The total call position was 65,420 contracts, up 4,295 contracts; the total put position was 94,168 contracts, up 6,167 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 143.94%, down 0.0252 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.65%, up 0.0929 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce released a briefing on the progress of consultations in the China - EU electric vehicle case. The China - EU agreed to provide general guidance on price commitments to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU. It is expected that from 2026 to 2028, China's electric vehicle exports to the EU will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20% [2]. - Xici Technology's sales revenue in the lithium - ion battery industry accounts for more than half. The lithium - ion battery industry shows signs of recovery, mainly driven by the growth of power battery and energy storage demand [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve supporting systems, issue management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, and revise the guidance catalog for industrial structure adjustment [2]. - In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.68%. Exports to China decreased, while exports to South Korea and Japan increased [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Fundamentals: As lithium carbonate prices rise, lithium ore prices increase. There may be hedging space, and domestic supply is slightly increasing. Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly adopt a rigid - demand procurement strategy, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - Options: The put - call ratio of option positions is 143.94%, down 0.0252% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the option market, and the implied volatility slightly increases [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].