瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drivers for PE are not significant. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Pay attention to the support around 6640 and the resistance around 6890 on the daily K - line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6550 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; and the 9 - month contract was 6802 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 554,956 lots, up 54,133 lots; the open interest was 477,388 lots, down 13,392 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 216, up 15 [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 436,415 lots, down 4,705 lots; the short position was 481,212 lots, down 15,961 lots; the net long position was - 44,797 lots, up 11,256 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6795.22 yuan/ton, up 101.74 yuan; in East China, it was 6844.42 yuan/ton, up 88.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 29.22, up 72.74 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 59.32 US dollars/barrel, up 0.75 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 558 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.96%, up 0.55 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 29.5%, down 0.67 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 37.89%, down 1.06 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.27%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.09%, up 0.68 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it was 16.09%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.1% week - on - week. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week [2] - As of January 7th, the inventory of PE producers was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% from the previous week; as of January 2nd, the social inventory of PE was 484,800 tons, up 2.04% from the previous week [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.56% to 6920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.50% to 6397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]