瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA monthly supply and demand report is overall bearish, dragging down US soybeans significantly. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight near - term supply due to import restrictions and oil mill shutdowns, but increased marginal supply as Australian rapeseeds arrive. The market is expected to face greater long - term supply pressure due to the expected increase in global and Canadian rapeseed production and the possible improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The rapeseed meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for crushing and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed oil market oscillated slightly higher today, boosted by the strengthening of palm oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9017 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2314 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 621.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5460 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 31 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 64 yuan/ton, down 6401 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 251744 lots, up 13 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 834183 lots, unchanged. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 15118 lots, up 3680 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 156275 lots, down 34541 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 2622 warehouse receipts, up 330; rapeseed meal had 84 warehouse receipts, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9956.25 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7460.96 yuan/ton, down 20.89 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 833 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1270 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; Chinese rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed imports in the current month were 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 488 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; rapeseed meal imports were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production in the current month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry in the current month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Market News and Views - Market news: On January 12, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the expected increase in global and Canadian rapeseed production by the USDA. The market is looking forward to the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China this week. The USDA monthly supply and demand report showed an increase in US and Brazilian soybean production and exports, which was bearish for the market [2]. - Rapeseed meal view: The domestic rapeseed meal market has tight near - term supply but faces long - term supply pressure. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2]. - Rapeseed oil view: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, long - term supply pressure is increasing. The market oscillated slightly higher today, boosted by the strengthening of palm oil [2].