苹果产业日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple industry shows short - term potential for a slightly strong and volatile trend due to increased holiday stocking demand despite a sluggish sales situation in the distribution market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,779 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 149; the main contract's open interest is 139,730 lots, up 10,729; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,404 lots, down 860 [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shaanxi Luochuan, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, and the price of second - grade fruit farmer goods is 168.34 yuan/jin [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.43 yuan/kg, up 0.06; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.17 yuan/kg, down 0.02; the national total apple cold - storage inventory is 720.9 million tons, down 12.66 million tons week - on - week; the capacity utilization ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.52 and 0.55 respectively, down 0.01 each; the monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, up 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year growth rate of apple export amount is 16.2%, up 30.5; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,117,946 million US dollars, down 216,418 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.84 yuan/kg, and 6.93 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.04, 0.03, and 0.05; the weekly average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets are 12.4, 17, and 23.6 respectively, with decreases of 4.85, 4.25, and 8.15 [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are 26.33%, with week - on - week increases of 0.09 and 0.12 respectively [2] Industry Status - Apple trading in production areas has changed little. Gansu and Liaoning have good trading and smooth sales. Shaanxi and Shandong mainly rely on merchants' self - stored goods. The number of inquiries for fruit farmer goods has increased, but actual purchases are limited, with most in a wait - and - see attitude. In late - Fuji production areas, the number of inquiring customers has increased slightly, with different trading atmospheres in each area. Fruit farmer goods are mainly concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning, and the sales in other areas have not accelerated significantly [2]