《黑色》日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday, the steel futures market weakened with market sentiment, while the spot market remained stable. The industry showed little change, with a significant seasonal decline in apparent demand, mainly in rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season accumulation phase. Rebar's inventory pressure will increase in the future, while hot - rolled coil's inventory is decreasing. Before the Spring Festival, real - world demand is weak, but prices have already factored in the weak demand. The price of steel is pushed up by the strengthening of raw material prices recently, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in January. The reference range for rebar May contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures market was in high - level oscillation yesterday with a slight increase in positions. The spot market was relatively strong, but downstream steel mills still purchased on demand. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume declined this period, and the shipment center will gradually decline after the end of the peak shipment season. The impact of weather on shipments is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the influence of steel mill maintenance on SMM increased slightly, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production. The average hot - metal production in January is expected to be around 2.3 million tons. The export orders of finished products increased significantly, and demand is still supported. The port inventory increased significantly. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal production resumption below. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, both coke and coking coal futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st, and the port price rebounded with the futures. The coke market is currently weakly stable. On the supply side, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, but the start - up rate is increasing. On the demand side, the steel mill's losses and maintenance decreased, the hot - metal production increased steadily, and the steel price rebounded at a low level. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants is still the main tone. The trading strategy is to go long on dips unilaterally and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures contract was in oscillation with a slight decline, and the 03 contract continued to reduce positions. The spot price fluctuated within a limited range, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. In terms of fundamentals, the ferrosilicon production was basically flat, reaching a historically low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is still some support for demand. The factory inventory decreased, and the cost was supported by the strong price of manganese ore. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5500. The ferromanganese futures contract was also in oscillation, with supply at a historically neutral - low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is support for demand. The manganese ore price is expected to be supported by factors such as port inventory and shipping issues. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3210, and 3280 respectively, with changes of - 10, 10, and - 10 compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar were 3158, 3202, and 3134 respectively, with changes of 14, 6, and 45. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 10. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil were 3303, 3321, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 9, 3, and 25 [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2970 with no change, and the slab price was 3730 with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3232, up 16; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3223, up 2. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 27, up 13; the profit of North China rebar was - 107, up 3; the profit of South China rebar was 193, up 3 [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal production was 229.0, up 1.6 (0.7%) from the previous day. The production of five major steel products was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%); rebar production was 191.0, up 2.8 (1.5%); hot - rolled coil production was 305.5, up 1.0 (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1253.9, up 21.8 (1.8%); rebar inventory was 438.1, up 16.1 (3.8%); hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.1, down 2.8 (- 0.8%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 8.4, down 2.2 (- 20.9%); the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 796.8, down 44.2 (- 5.3%); the apparent consumption of rebar was 175.0, down 25.5 (- 12.7%); the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 308.3, down 2.4 (- 0.8%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 878.4, 885.3, 884.1, and 922.0 respectively, with changes of - 13.1 (- 1.5%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), and - 2.2 (- 0.2%) compared to the previous day. The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 58.9, 0.8, 62.5, and 102.5 respectively, with changes of - 10.1 (- 14.6%), 65.0 (1.2%), 0.8 (1.4%), and 0.8 (0.8%). The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5, up 1.0 (4.9%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 74.7, down 31.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2920.4, up 164.0 (5.9%); the global shipment volume (weekly) was 3213.7, down 32.8 (- 1.0%); the national monthly import volume was 11054.0, down 76.9 (- 0.7%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 227.4, up 2.1 (0.9%); the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) was 325.2, down 1.9 (- 0.6%); the national monthly pig - iron production was 6234.3, down 320.6 (- 4.9%); the national monthly crude - steel production was 6987.1, down 212.6 (- 3.0%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) was 16275.26, up 304.4 (1.9%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8989.6, up 43.0 (0.5%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 19.0, down 1.0 (- 5.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 2224, up 13; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 1745, up 22. The coke 05, 09 contracts were 1745, 1824 respectively, with changes of - 25 (- 1.4%) and - 20 (- 1.1%). The 05 - 09 spread was - 79, down 5 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1260 with no change; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1259, up 24 (1.9%). The coking coal 05, 09 contracts were 1191, 1268 respectively, with changes of - 47 (- 3.8%) and - 43 (- 3.2%). The JM05 - JM09 spread was - 77, down 5 [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants (weekly) was 62.7, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%); the raw - coal production was 853.4, down 2.7 (- 0.3%); the clean - coal production was 438.2, down 0.6 (- 0.1%) [6]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 63.6, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%) [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory was 915.7, up 0.2 (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 86.1, down 5.5 (- 6.0%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645.7, up 1.7 (0.3%); the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1071.7, up 12.0 (1.2%); the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 797.7, down 4.5 (- 0.6%); the port inventory was 299.8, down 1.5 (- 0.5%) [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5682.0, down 16.0 (- 0.3%); the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract was 5916.0, down 14.0 (- 0.2%). The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu were 5350.0, 5300.0, 5320.0, and 5300.0 respectively, with no changes. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Ningxia, and Guizhou were 5750.0, 5850.0, 5650.0, and 5800.0 respectively, with increases of 50.0 (0.9%), 50.0 (0.9%), 0.0 (0.0%), and 50.0 (0.9%) [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5882.9, up 38.1 (0.7%); the production cost in Guangxi was 6236.3 with no change; the production cost in Qinghai was 5831.0 with no change; the production cost in Ningxia was 5433.0 with no change. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 132.9, up 11.9; the production profit in Ningxia was - 113.0 with no change [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon was 0.0, up 0.2 (0.2%); the weekly production of ferromanganese was 19.1, down 0.3 (- 1.4%). The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) was 29.6, up 0.1 (0.3%); the operating rate of ferromanganese was 36.8, down 0.1 (- 0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (estimated by Steel Union) was 1.9, up 0.0 (0.1%); the weekly demand for ferromanganese (estimated by Steel Union) was 11.6, up 0.1 (0.7%). The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the blast - furnace operating rate (weekly) was 79.3, up 0.4 (0.5%); the production of five major steel products (weekly) was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%) [7]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises (weekly) was 6.9, up 0.5 (7.1%); the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises (weekly) was 38.3, down 1.1 (- 2.8%). The average available days of ferrosilicon for downstream users (monthly) was 15.4, down 0.4 (- 2.5%); the average available days of ferromanganese inventory (monthly) was 16, up 0.1 (0.9%) [7].