《农产品》日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Apple - Short - term, the apple futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival. Long - term, good - quality fruits are in short supply with firm prices, while high prices may suppress consumption, and the market share of ordinary apples is squeezed by other fruits, leading to high inventory pressure. The futures market shows a high - level shock with a near - strong and far - weak price pattern [1]. Red Dates - The current red date market has sufficient supply, with off - grade and finished products arriving at the sales areas. The overall market transaction is weak, and the consumption peak season is lackluster. Recently, the number of futures warehouse receipts has gradually increased. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the futures prices fluctuate within a range [3]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil shows a trend of rising and then falling due to rumors about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Domestic palm oil may test the support at 8750 yuan. For soybean oil, the US market has a decrease in production but an increase in ending stocks, which is bearish. However, domestic soybean oil fundamentals are improving, but the rise is restricted by USDA and MPOB reports. Rapeseed oil is boosted by the strong performance of related external oils, but its upward momentum is limited due to expected trade - relation easing and global rapeseed harvest. There is a risk of it falling to 8900 yuan, while the spot price remains strong due to low inventory [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast region is still limited, and prices are strong before the Spring Festival. In the North China region, prices fluctuate slightly. The demand side has different inventory strategies for different enterprises, and policy - driven corn auctions are ongoing but with limited scale. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's need for stocking support prices, but policy - released corn restricts the increase. For corn starch, prices also show certain fluctuations [7]. Sugar - The market's focus is on Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane season starting in April. ICE raw - sugar futures have a slight increase due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of December. The expected increase in the next - season's sugar - cane yield in Brazil and India's strong production, along with Thailand's slow - progress season, lead to a stable and fluctuating raw - sugar price in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the sugar price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [10]. Meal Products - USDA slightly raises the US soybean production and lowers exports, causing the US soybean inventory to rise and the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support at around 1050 cents. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is high, which suppresses the market. But the expected low - level arrival in the first quarter and the uncertainty of arrival time limit the downward space of soybean meal. The market maintains a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [12]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are relatively stable, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The US cotton shows a decrease in both production and ending stocks in January compared to December. The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas is rising, and the export sales are declining, so US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Zhengzhou cotton has support from textile enterprises' rigid demand, but with increasing unfavorable factors such as compressed profits and expanding price differences between domestic and foreign cotton. The short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment period [14]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has significantly declined, with reduced supply in the North and a sharp drop in demand in the South, suppressing the price. Although there is still some second - fattening activity, the enthusiasm is limited. The overall supply in January is expected to be abundant, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [15]. Eggs - The egg supply is in an oversupply stage, with a slight decrease in the number of culled hens and a small increase in newly - laid hens. There is a structural difference in egg sizes. The demand is increasing due to the peak production season of food enterprises and the approaching Spring Festival, but the increase is mainly in the trade - link inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there may be a short - term adjustment, but there is still a possibility of a small increase, with attention to the pressure level around 3100 [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Futures prices: Apple 2605 (main contract) rose 1.55%, and Apple 2610 rose 0.81%. The basis decreased by 10.42%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 6.96%. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several major fruit wholesale markets increased, with a 16.67% increase at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market. - Inventory and profit: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit increased [1]. Red Dates - Futures prices: Red date 2605 (main contract) fell 1.09%, and other contracts also showed declines. The 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased. - Spot prices: The prices of different - grade red dates in Cangzhou were relatively stable. The basis of Cangzhou's top - grade and first - grade red dates against the main contract increased. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.71%, and the effective forecast decreased by 15.25% [3]. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18%, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 21.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17%. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 2.89%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 264.86%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72%. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.55%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 15.69%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 14.40% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The futures price of Corn 2603 decreased by 0.26%, the basis increased by 32.00%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 100.00%. The import cost from Brazil decreased by 3.38%, and the import profit increased by 37.80%. - Corn starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 decreased by 0.19%, the basis increased by 8.78%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 10.34% [7]. Sugar - Futures market: The futures prices of Sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.34%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 116.67%. - Spot market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were stable. The basis in Nanning increased by 42.67%, and in Kunming, it increased by 58.18%. - Industry situation: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [10]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.32%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 1.04%, and the basis increased by 5.28%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 40.1%. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.69%, and the basis increased by 8.57%. The Canadian 3 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 2.87% [12]. Cotton - Futures market: The futures prices of Cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.71%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.82%. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B decreased, while the FC Index M 1% increased. The basis differences between 3128B and futures contracts decreased. - Industry situation: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, and the textile - related export and retail data showed certain changes [14]. Live Pigs - Futures market: The futures price of Live Pig 2605 increased slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 12.79%. The main - contract basis increased by 3.43%. - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 1.12%, and the white - strip price increased by 0.92% [15]. Eggs - Futures market: The futures prices of Egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The 3 - 4 spread decreased by 2.53%. - Spot market: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.77%, and the basis increased by 36.92%. - Related indicators: The egg - chicken - seedling price, egg - feed ratio, and breeding profit increased, while the culled - chicken price decreased [17].