建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6506 yuan/ton, closed at 6550 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton (1.85%), with a position of 6776 and a decrease of 777 [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6722 yuan/ton, closed at 6766 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton (1.42%), with a position of 477388 and a decrease of 13392 [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6761 yuan/ton, closed at 6802 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan/ton (1.54%), with a position of 45745 and an increase of 2349 [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6311 yuan/ton, closed at 6343 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.51%), with a position of 3040 and a decrease of 263 [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6542 yuan/ton, closed at 6545 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (0.71%), with a position of 493438 and a decrease of 9272 [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6619 yuan/ton, closed at 6585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.46%), with a position of 90201 and an increase of 1293 [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6766 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton (1.42%), with a trading volume of 477,000 lots and a position decrease of 13392 lots to 477388 lots [6] - PP2605 closed at 6545 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan (0.71%), with a position decrease of 9272 lots to 493,400 lots [6] - Polyolefins have been boosted since the beginning of the year, but the fundamental support is not strong [6] - Supply side: The supply pressure of polypropylene has been relieved due to more temporary maintenance, while the overall supply pressure of plastic has increased slightly due to the decline in maintenance loss and the concentrated arrival of imported cargoes [6] - Demand side: The demand for mulch film has driven a slight increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, while the operating rates of other products have remained basically stable. Some downstream factories have increased their replenishment slightly, but the increase is limited. Enterprises' resistance to high prices has restricted the increase in prices [6] - In the short term, the situation in Iran has threatened the crude oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has been released concentratedly, resulting in a three - day consecutive increase in the daily line of crude oil. However, overseas geopolitical conflicts cannot change the pattern of crude oil surplus. Polyolefins are expected to rise first and then fall driven by the recovery of supply, the entry of demand into the off - season, and the inventory digestion cycle [6] Group 4: Industry News - On January 13, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.67%) from the previous working day, compared with 580,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Most PE market prices have risen. The price of LLDPE in North China is 6620 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China is 6680 - 6870 yuan/ton, and in South China is 6780 - 7050 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily referenced at 5940 - 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. There is no obvious pressure on the market supply side, production enterprises still have a certain willingness to hold up prices, the cost pressure of major downstream enterprises is temporarily controllable, and downstream factories mainly purchase on a low - price and wait - and - see basis. The overall market trading has not changed much [7] - The continuous rise of PP futures has boosted the atmosphere of the spot market. Based on the relatively fast pre - sales rhythm in the early stage, production enterprises have little inventory pressure, and most factory prices have been raised. The mainstream quotation of drawn wire in North China is 6330 - 6500 yuan/ton, in East China is 6370 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China is 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][15] - Data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][14]