建信期货棉花日报-20260114

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou Cotton futures fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm-price quotes were lowered, and the basis was temporarily stable. [7] - The pure cotton yarn market had average trading volume, with few new orders. Traders and downstream weavers made purchases based on rigid demand, with a cautious attitude. The pure cotton yarn price quote remained stable, but the transaction focus declined, and some spinning mills sold at a discount. Recently, the sales of low-count yarns improved slightly, with increased demand for 21S and 26S. [7] - The overall trading volume in the all-cotton grey fabric market remained dull. Some regions started pre-festival replenishment, but the volume was still small. [7] Overseas Market - In the USDA monthly report, the 2025/26 US cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons compared to December. The global cotton consumption was revised up by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons, which was relatively positive. The supply-demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. [8] - The net long position of CFTC US cotton funds continued to rise, and the external market trend improved. Attention should be paid to the subsequent signing and export performance. [8] Domestic Market - The domestic fundamentals remained the same, with no significant changes in the short term. Cotton prices fluctuated greatly recently. Spinning mills and traders made purchases at low prices, and yarn prices remained basically stable. Manufacturers sold at appropriate prices. Attention should be paid to whether there would be phased replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Outlook - In the short term, Zhengzhou Cotton futures would fluctuate widely and adjust, waiting for new drivers. In the long term, the upward trend remained unchanged. [8] 2. Industry News USDA January Supply and Demand Report - The expected US cotton planting area for 2025/26 in January was 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 20,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton harvest area for 2025/26 in January was 7.8 million acres, an increase of 430,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton yield per acre for 2025/26 in January was 856 pounds/acre, a decrease of 73 pounds/acre compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton production for 2025/26 in January was 13.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton supply for 2025/26 in January was 17.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton consumption for 2025/26 in January was 13.8 million bales, the same as in December. [10] - The expected US cotton ending inventory for 2025/26 in January was 4.2 million bales, a decrease of 300,000 bales compared to December. [10] US Cotton Inspection Progress - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 9% slower year-on-year. [10] - The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.703 million tons, with an inspection progress of 89.37%, down 9% year-on-year. The inspection volume of Pima cotton was 72,900 tons, with an inspection progress of 88.6%, 20% slower year-on-year. [10] - The weekly deliverable ratio was 76.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year-on-year. [10] Brazil Cotton Planting Progress - As of January 10, the cotton planting rate in Brazil was 31.9%, up from 31.2% the previous week, lower than 33.5% in the same period last year and higher than the five-year average of 24.2%. [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provided multiple charts, including the CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee. All data sources were Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][18][19][21][27][29]