《能源化工》日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - Prices: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - Prices: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - Prices: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - Inventory: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - Operating Rates: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - Prices: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - Production and Operating Rates: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - Inventory: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - Operating Rates: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - Inventory: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - Inventory: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - Inventory: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - Prices: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - Inventory: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - Prices: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - Spreads: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].