建信期货生猪日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening before the New Year increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens rose slightly. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and currently, the breeding end is in normal slaughter mode [7]. - On the demand side, after the spot price increase, second - round fattening has decreased and is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with weak replenishment demand. The demand for curing and sausage - making is near the end, terminal consumer consumption has returned to the pre - holiday level, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the holiday. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On January 13, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 186,600 heads, a decrease of 2,200 heads from the previous day, 3,000 heads week - on - week, and 5,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall, for the spot market, the consumption peak has passed, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price will be mainly volatile. For the futures market, pig supply is expected to continue to increase slightly, the pressure of second - round fattening is still relatively high compared to the same period last year, which continues to exert downward pressure. However, the more severe epidemic in the north in the early stage boosted the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic does not continue to spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally. Be vigilant against the risk of price decline and continuously monitor the progress of the epidemic [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,254 lots to 355,333 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.75 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, an increase of 45 yuan/head from the previous week [8][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of January 8, the average profit and loss per self - bred and self - raised pig was basically balanced, an increase of 28 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 129.8 yuan/head, an increase of 31 yuan/head week - on - week [19]. - In the week of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.54kg, a decrease of 0.12kg from the previous week, with a week - on - week decline of 0.09% [19].