建信期货豆粕日报-20260114

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the outer - market US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. Yesterday, the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report. The 2025 US soybean yield remained at a high of 53 bushels, and the overall production changed little. Although the crushing demand continued to improve, the export was poor, especially other countries outside China preferred to buy Brazilian soybeans. The new - season ending stocks increased from 290 million bushels in December to 350 million bushels, higher than last year's 325 million bushels. Brazil's production estimate increased slightly due to good weather. After the report, the potential bullish expectation was shattered, and the previous strong support at 1050 cents may weaken, possibly testing the 1000 - cent support in the future [6]. - Domestic soybean meal was differentiated. The 03 contract was stronger than the 05 contract because of the logic of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter. Today, over 1 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, indicating potential spot tightness at the end of March. The 03 contract may not remain strong if there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons. The 05 contract, mainly corresponding to Brazilian soybeans, has no current bullish factors and should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Operation Suggestions - Continuously monitor the situation of imported soybean auctions. If there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons, the 03 contract may not maintain its strength. The 05 contract should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Market Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3124 | 3124 | 3310 | 3124 | 3154 | 30 | 0.96% | 1101456 | -74 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3095 | 3119 | 3138 | 3091 | 3117 | 22 | 0.71% | 205862 | 551279 | -15977 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2786 | 2799 | 2805 | 2756 | 2761 | -25 | -0.90% | 1180639 | 2258105 | -34267 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA report raised the 2025/2026 US soybean area to 81.2 million acres (previously 81.1 million), production to 4.262 billion bushels (previously 4.253 billion), exports to 1.575 billion bushels (previously 1.635 billion), and ending stocks to 350 million bushels (previously 290 million). Brazil's soybean production was raised to 178 million tons (previously 175 million), and exports to 114 million tons (previously 112.5 million). Global soybean production increased to 425.68 million tons (previously 422.54 million), and ending stocks to 124.41 million tons (previously 122.37 million). China's soybean imports remained unchanged at 112 million tons [8]. - AgRural reported that the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean harvest had started. As of January 8, 0.6% of the harvest was completed, slightly higher than last year's 0.3%. The agency expected the annual Brazilian soybean production to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. The harvest start was slightly later than expected due to the extended growth cycle in some areas, but there was no obvious delay in the progress [8]. - On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022 - 2025, located in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. All were sold at an average price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, with delivery dates from January 15 to April 30, 2026 [9]