原木期货日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in future shipments, but the weak demand limits the upside potential. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 13th, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, log 2605, and log 2607 were 770.0, 774.5, 786.0, and 798.0 respectively. The price of log 2603 increased by 1.5 (0.19%), while log 2605 decreased by -0.5 (-0.06%) and log 2607 decreased by -1.5 (-0.19%) compared to January 12th. The main contract basis was -34.5, a decrease of 1.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 13th compared to the previous day. The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged on January 16th [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 14th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.974, and the import theoretical cost was 755.52 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.28 yuan compared to January 13th [1] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 191.4 million cubic meters, a 1.16% increase compared to October. The number of ships at the port was 52.0, a 6.12% increase compared to the previous period [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2nd. In Shandong, the inventory was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters [1] Demand - As of January 9th, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters (-3%), while in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.18 million cubic meters (8%) [2] Forecast of Arrival - From January 12th - 18th, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week). The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters (59% week - on - week) [2]