农产品早报-20260114

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Changchun remained stable, while in Jinzhou and Weifang, it increased by 10. The price in Shekou rose by 10. Corn's basis increased by 16, and the import profit increased by 80. Starch's basis increased by 5, and the processing profit increased by 21 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, depending on pre - holiday downstream stocking enthusiasm [3] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory reduction [3] Group 3: Sugar Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis increased by 32, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 18, and that from Brazil decreased by 17. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6] Market Analysis - International: In the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season, the northern hemisphere's major producers are expected to increase production in the long - term. Pay attention to the actual realization of the production increase [6] - Domestic: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the price is based on domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will approach the cost of out - of - quota imports [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. The planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, with the largest increase of 0.20 in Shandong. The basis increased by 20, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.21 [15] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline rate of inventory lies in the culling rhythm. In Hebei, if the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, a batch of hens over 400 days old will be culled, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [16] Group 6: Apples Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The 1 - month basis decreased by 149, and the 5 - month basis decreased by 69 [18][19] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still light. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have declined. As of January 7, 2026, the national inventory decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - term, the overall pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [19] Group 7: Pigs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 40 [19] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [19]