LPG早报-20260114

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Overall, both domestic and international valuations are relatively high. In terms of external market drivers, short - term supply and demand remain tight, but the buying interest for Middle - East shipments in February has weakened. After the fog in the US dissipates, the supply pressure is still significant, and the end of the combustion demand is approaching. It is expected that the fundamentals of the external market will weaken. The valuation of the domestic 02 contract is neutral, and the drivers should focus on whether there will be negative feedback under the low profit of PDH and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts. The valuation of the 3 - 4 month spread is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Situation - On Tuesday, due to rising geopolitical risks, the futures market rose significantly. The 02 - 03 month spread was 77 (-12), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -213 (-6). As of 9 pm on Tuesday, the FEI and CP paper prices were 521.84 and 526.84 US dollars respectively, up 7.34 US dollars compared to 8 pm on Monday [4]. - The domestic market rose and then fluctuated. The 02 basis was 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 month spread was 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6,218 (-180). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4,400 (+40), East China at 4,467 (+70), and South China at 4,840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4,390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods increased. The FEI and CP month spreads decreased slightly, while the MB month spread increased slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuated. Both domestic and international markets strengthened, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China was 79 (+13) [4]. Weekly Situation - The AFB margin has recovered but is still poor. The port storage capacity ratio increased by 0.14 pct due to limited ship arrivals. Refineries had a small destocking of -0.47%, and external sales increased by 1.07% [4].