建信期货多晶硅日报-20260114

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy has shifted from anti - involution to anti - monopoly, breaking the strong cost - support logic. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products is a further negative factor. With strict risk control by the exchange, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the spot price of polysilicon is at a high level, the fundamental performance is weak. The expected production of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected production of silicon wafers, cells, and components is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. The spot inventory of polysilicon in the second week of January was 311,800 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of polysilicon continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,005 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.45%. The trading volume was 28,379 lots, the open interest was 48,844 lots, with a net increase of 14 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net increase of 172 lots, and the top 20 short positions had a net decrease of 279 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,460 lots, an increase of 30 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance's official website released an announcement on adjusting the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In November 2015, 2024, the export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products decreased from 13% to 9% [5].