建信期货油脂日报-20260114

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the surplus of US soybean supply, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, the sufficient global soybean supply, and the soybean reserve release, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and the recent high. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850–8150. [8] - Palm oil showed a corrective trend of rising and then falling under the influence of the rumor that Indonesia cannot implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14. The market expects the China-Canada trade relationship to ease, and China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil. This week, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend, and attention should be paid to whether there is an official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] - The spread between near and far months of rapeseed oil shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The nearby rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, the cargo rights are concentrated, and the basis quotation is firm. In terms of arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. Oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with resistance above and support below. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of the third - grade rapeseed oil in February was 05+800, from February to May was 05+650, and from April to May was 05+600. The quotation of rapeseed oil in Dongguan from January to February was 05+1200. The basis price of the first - grade soybean oil in the East China market was Y05+520 for spot, 05+500 from January to March, 05+480 from February to March, 05+380 from February to May, 05+360 from March to May, 05+300 from April to May, 05+240 from May to July, 05+210 from June to September, and 05+200 from July to September. The third - grade soybean oil was 05+450, and the degummed soybean oil was 05+320. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders was stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories, 05+40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil, and 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Be cautious about the future market of soybean oil. For palm oil, pay attention to the implementation of the B50 policy in Indonesia. For rapeseed oil, focus on the official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] 2. Industry News - Global Weather Report: In late January, the temperature in Argentina will tend to decrease with increased rainfall, which is very beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. In the next few weeks, most parts of Brazil will receive near - normal or above - normal rainfall, and there may be floods in the southeastern region. Paraguay will experience cool and wet weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. [9] - Brazilian Soybean Harvest: As of January 8, the harvest of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had started, with 0.6% completed, slightly higher than 0.3% in the same period last year. AgRural expects the Brazilian soybean production this year to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. As of January 9, according to PAN, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, the largest soybean - producing state in Brazil, is higher than the average in recent years but lower than that in 2024. In other parts of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly in irrigated areas. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, etc., as well as basis price changes, spreads between different months of palm oil, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. [7][17][18]